Southeast Asian firms are steadily and quietly expanding their presence in Africa, led by Olam Group (Singapore), Viettel (Vietnam), and ICTSI (Philippines) across agribusiness, telecoms, and port logistics. Collectively, these companies employ tens of thousands of Africans and have invested billions in critical infrastructure, supply chains, and digital connectivity. With Africa accounting for only about 2.2% of ASEAN’s international trade, the scope to deepen already strong economic and investment ties is substantial.

Cerberus Capital Management is investing an additional $250 million into the Agila Subic Shipyard in the Philippines, bringing its total commitment to $550 million. The site, once owned by Hanjin and defaulted on $1.3 billion in loans, is being transformed into a logistics and industrial hub. Located in the Subic Bay Freeport, the U.S. investment boosts economic ties, regional security, and U.S. presence amid rising Chinese and Gulf port acquisitions.

Since 1944, the Bretton Woods system reshaped global trade, finance, and power. Anchored by U.S. military protection, dollar convertibility, and open markets, it fueled decades of growth and relative stability. But that framework is now unraveling. A more fragmented, mercantilist world is emerging, where geopolitics and strategic alliances matter more than market efficiency. Currency and commodity volatility are rising, global institutions are losing clout, and trade flows are increasingly guided by political alignment. Understanding how we arrived at this point is essential to navigating what comes next.

The U.S. ended duty-free access for most African nations on July 31, 2025, effectively replacing AGOA and GSP with a flat 15% tariff. The move upends decades of preferential access African nations have enjoyed with the US. South Africa and Libya were hit hardest at 30%, while Lesotho unexpectedly secured just 15% following emergency outreach. Morocco and Tunisia saw their U.S. free trade agreements effectively neutralized.

In 2024, the Philippines saw $8.9 billion in FDI net inflows, a 6.6% decline from 2022 and virtually the same as seen in 2023. Comparatively, Singapore attracted $143 billion, Vietnam $20.2 billion, and Indonesia $55.3 billion. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. supports amending the constitution to lift the 60-40 rule limiting foreign ownership to only 40%. Key provisions under review include Article XII, Sections 2, 10, and 11. The reforms face political resistance from a public skeptical of the Marcos legacy of corruption and from elite families concerned about losing control and facing foreign competition.

Real estate private equity emerged surprisingly late, with the first fund, Zell-Merrill, launched in 1988. Before that, generous bank lending meant developers rarely needed outside equity. But after the 1980s debt crisis and 1986 U.S. tax reform, capital needs shifted. Sam Zell pioneered a new model: acquiring distressed properties using investor capital, not bank debt. The success of Zell, followed by Goldman Sachs and others, reshaped real estate investing. This shift aligned incentives better and set the foundation for today’s multi-trillion-dollar real estate private equity industry.

Vietnam has positioned itself as a low-cost manufacturing alternative to China, drawing global electronics brands for assembly and final production. It now aims to move up the value chain and play a larger role in the strategically vital semiconductor sector, targeting $20–$30 billion in industry value by 2030. Early moves include major foreign-led investments from Intel, Amkor, and Hana Micron, alongside domestic initiatives by FPT and Viettel. However, moving into high-value chipmaking will be far more challenging, with talent shortages, limited funding, infrastructure gaps, and reliance on foreign capital putting Vietnam at risk of remaining in lower-margin segments.

KoBold Metals, a well-capitalized U.S. startup backed by Breakthrough Energy Ventures and investors like Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, is advancing Zambia’s Mingomba copper project. The high-grade deposit, first discovered in 1979, has passed through several owners who viewed it as uneconomical at the time. With copper prices now four to five times higher and infrastructure in the region improving, KoBold is betting that conditions have shifted. The company plans to begin shaft sinking in 2026 and bring the mine online by 2031. Total development costs are expected to reach $2.3 billion.